Reshufflement: Paul Biya looking for new ministers…
Since the swearing in of the proclaimed President Elect Paul Biya, the national community is waiting for a new government that will help implement its new program. To try to force his hand, fake governments circulate in social networks and newspapers, without shaking the man who has his habits.
If we wait impatiently for the government, it is in direct line with a political practice, which does not obey any law that could be opposed to the President of the Republic, but to which he has often submitted since his accession to the supreme magistrature, and this in an evolutionary way.
As soon as he was sworn in on November 6, 1982, Paul Biya appointed a government on the same day and changed it six months later, on April 13, 1983. And in 1983, the government was reformed every three years. months: April 13, June 18 and August 22. His first election was held on January 14, 1984, and on February 4 the new government of this term was known, just 17 days later. Until April 24, 1988, the date of the next election, the pace of the reshuffles remains fairly
In the aftermath of the April 24, 1988 election, a new government was formed on May 16, 22 days after polling day. This mandate, which also lasts four years because of the anticipation of elections, is the one that has experienced the most regular turnover in the history of government members. Paul Biya will train 7 in total during this time, the last being formed on September 4, 1992, just one month before the next election. Which takes place on October 11th. Paul Biya continues to succeed to himself, this time he takes 45 days to make his new men known,
on November 25 exactly. On that date he first appointed the prime minister, and the full government was unveiled rather two days later, on November 27. During this 5-year term, the movement in the ministries is less dense than the previous mandate, there will be 5 in all, so an average of one government a year. The last one comes on April 21, 1997, who is preparing this year’s election.
The Cameroonians return to the polls on October 12, and the president Paul Biya returns for his first mandate of 7 years. The first government of the Septennat intervenes on December 7, 1997, 55 days later. During 7 years it forms 6 governments, one is now below the average of one government per year. On October 11, 2004, Paul Biya was elected for a 6th term in power, the second of 7 years.
During this period, the annual average of governments continues to fall. The first one is formed again on December 7 of this year, 56 days after a little like during the taking of the mandate of 1997. 4 governments are formed during the 7 years, and the last begins even the following mandate.
Resignation of Ahmadou Ahidjo
Indeed, after the October 9, 2011 poll, Paul Biya will not be touched by the last government formed more than two years earlier, on June 30, 2009. It is on December 9, 2013 that he proceeded to the cabinet reshuffle, exactly 2 years and two months after the election. Two edits occur on October 2, 2015 and March 2, 2018 respectively, making a total of 3 governments for 7 years from 2011 to 2018.
Comparing first, we find that President Paul Biya started from an average from two governments per year in 1982 to an average of one government every two and a half years in 2018, with the lowest rate of movement during the 2001/2018 term.
Then we see that he left a period of 17 days after the elections to form a government in 1984, 2 years 2 months in 2011. Mandate mandate this period has also continued to lengthen : 1 day in 1982 after he took the oath following the resignation of the late Ahmadou Ahidjo, 17 days in 1984 when he was elected the first time, 22 days in 1988 for the beginning of his new term, 45 days after the 1992 election, 55 days after the 1997 election, 56 days after the 2004 election, and 792 days, two years two months after 2011.
By remaining in this logic, and starting from the observation, one could conclude that the next reshuffle will have to intervene beyond 792 days after October 7, 2018, that is to say around November 2020. But the we can not allow such a conclusion, for the simple reason that politics is not an exact science.
Paul Biya who is presented as being master of time, has also accustomed Cameroonians to the notion of presidential time, and even to the presidential silence. Those who gnaw their brakes waiting for the decree should stay awake, because the sphinx can hit at any time.
Moreover, the events that have commanded these different movements within the government at the same time as the pace of rotation have never been the same. They have often been influenced sometimes by the search for solutions to national and international problems, sometimes by the simple logic of reward.